Demographic Dangers & Declining Birth Rates, Part Seven A: Aging & the Projection of Power.

Rapidly aging populations & decreasing numbers of potential military combatants creates complex security concerns that can affect global power shifts. How can nations combat this, or is the urge to react militarily overwhelming?

Peter Winn-Brown
24 min readJun 23, 2023
Cityscape at night with hundreds of high rise apartment buildings, lights on in every window blocking out the stars.
At bursting point! Bustling cities, jostling elbows, & 24 hour living is Heaven for some people! But are these cities set to become vast vacant monoliths, 21st century Angkor Wat’s, as our populations age and shrink?

“…perhaps, we should recalibrate our expectation of the relationship between aging and national security. One relevant theory does come to mind: Power transition theory, which argues that a state with declining power will act aggressively while it still can, (and that) would explain Russia’s actions as a last gasp and shed light on why rapidly aging China is doubling down on its military.”

Jennifer Sciubba, 8 Billion and Counting… (1).

A new arms race…

I began this series on demographics with the quote above, and we have now come almost full circle. Demographics is fast becoming the single most influential factor in the future of global geo-politics. It may yet drive further conflict as population dynamics everywhere undergo profound, irreversible change.



Peter Winn-Brown

The past can illuminate the present if we shine the light of inquiry openly, truthfully, with attention to detail & care for the salient facts.