Israel & Palestine: What next?
‘…there is and always will be only one state between the river and the sea and (they, the Israelis & Palestinians, should) focus their efforts on making that state a viable home for all of the territory’s inhabitants, Jews and Arabs alike.’
This slightly edited quote above is from a 2019 Foreign Affairs article by Yousef Munayyar in which he suggests that a one state solution for Palestine and Israel is now the only viable or even possible option moving forward.
Since that was written much has happened in the region. So, in the midst of yet another flare-up of violence across Palestine and Israel, is that statement an accurate reflection of where we are today?
Recent events
Other Arab nations have grown tired of lack-lustre Palestinian leaders who have only succeeded in undermining their own bargaining position, rendering the ‘Palestinian question’ a moot point in what is a hectic Middle East agenda, leading them, perhaps not inevitably, but pointedly, to consider other options as a way forward for the region as a whole effectively side-stepping the question altogether.
Enter the Trump administration, with their laissez faire foreign policies, who threw MENA lottery tickets into the air like so much confetti, telling the world that the US supported whatever works vis a vis Palestine, ‘a one state or two state solution,’ as the people wish, displaying their usual flair for the dramatic whilst not committing to any solution at all, and all while excluding the Palestinians from a so-called ‘peace process’, grandiloquently called the Abraham Accords,’ that led to a normalisation of relations between the UAE, Morocco, Bahrain, Sudan and the state of Israel, a process that was lauded as a huge step forward for regional stability and relations.
That delicate diplomatic balance has been severely tested in recent weeks however, as violent conflict has once again erupted between Israel and the Palestinians, the most violent outbreak since 2014, with many commentators suggesting that it may escalate into a 3rd intifada or even all out civil war.
This has put these newly sculpted relationships on shaky ground as Israel continues to push home its advantage both militarily and diplomatically. The international community, including the UN, pay lip service only to the conflict, expressing their outrage and demanding de-escalation from both sides, but failing to back up these paper tigers with anything more substantive than a verbal warning; with not even a tongue lashing in sight!
And so it goes on.
As civilians on both sides continue to pay the price for their respective leaders’ failure or unwillingness to come to terms that will ultimately benefit everyone, no matter their creed, no matter their race, no matter their history, innocent victims like little 6 year old Suzy, pulled from the rubble of the buildings where she had sought safety, threaten to push this conflict into the next generation and beyond.
On the Israeli side, there is a fundamental failure by both the people and leaders alike to see the hypocrisy in their extreme, right wing treatment of their historical neighbours in the region, even as they themselves denounce any criticism of their tactics as rabidly antisemitic. Such screams of outrage have the effect of silencing their critics allowing them to continue what is in effect an apartheid regime, and to perpetuate a conflict that for decades now, has gone nowhere.
And all the while the Palestinians languish beneath a moth-eaten, protective blanket called Hamas, paid for by the double-dealing Iranian Shia’s, as the people themselves decry their lack of a true leader, one who might steer them clear of the morass and back into the warming light and embrace of a Mediterranean sun, and a life worth living.
Is the two-state solution still a viable option?
So whether by design or (more likely?) by accident, Trump released a cat, called One State, from the bag when he made his comments (see above).
And once out of the bag, One State does not wish to be put back! And nor should he be!
And yet today, even as America finally begins to pressure Israel to stop the slaughter of Palestinians, Joe Biden still seems to be stuck on repeat, supporting the old two state solution long after it’s usefulness and relevance has departed, a nod to foreign policy normalcy that, perhaps deliberately, white washes over Trump’s inadvertent soothsaying and will ultimately change nothing.
The two state solution, first proposed and made part of the peace process at the 1993 Oslo Accords, has been the corner stone of US policy for the region ever since, and Biden seems to be intent on marching to the same old beat even after most have changed their tune irrevocably.
In fact John Kerry, as Secretary of State in 2016, put the two state solution in the ICU ward giving it a maximum of two years viability before reaching its natural expiration date.
Muasher, Brown et al, wrote with open-eyed clarity in 2018 with regard to the two state proposal:
‘Twenty-five years of diplomacy — including the Oslo Accords, the Camp David Summit and the Clinton Parameters, the Taba Summit, the Arab Peace Initiative, the Middle East Road Map, the Olmert-Abbas talks within the Annapolis process, the Kerry peace efforts, and others — have done little to stop the negatively shifting status quo.’
Israel has continued to evict and occupy Palestinian land and homes despite UN Resolution 2334 in 2016 that compelled them to stop and by now Israeli settlers are so embedded in their wrongful occupancy’s that within Israel any pretence at a two state solution has lost all traction.
In fact Netanyahu has continued to annex Palestinian lands for settlement in blatant disregard of international law, the Oslo Accords and UN Resolutions, meaning that any proposed partitioning of the lands as per 1967 lines (following the Accords) is just no longer possible.
And legally the Palestinians, who have been classed as stateless since the signing of the Balfour Declaration in 1917, are effectively refugees in their homeland, with no right to a state or a homeland, not being Jews themselves. It is this fundamental flaw, this short-sightedness by the British over 100 years ago, that has all but undermined the many partition plans that have suggested in the decades since, and ultimately formed the basis for the 1948 forced expulsion of over 750,000 by armed Zionists that has become known as the Palestinian Nakba, or tragedy.
Now, with the normalisation process well under way, some Arab nations appear to have put self-interest ahead of the Palestinian cause in effect hammering the final nail into the coffin of the two state solution.
Now, the Palestinians, bereft of worthwhile support in the Arab world, need to do this for themselves by finding a leader who has the strength and resolve to move beyond the old and seek out the new.
The big problem however, is getting Biden and America to accept the two state door is closed and to change tack, and to start pressuring both sides to move towards a workable, viable one state option that enshrines equal rights for all citizens in a legally binding constitution.
Internationally, America is perhaps the only with clout to achieve this. Other nations might talk a good argument, but they lack the influence of the US and the close ties, financially, diplomatically and militarily, that have bound Israel to America since 1948.
To do this America needs to convince both the Israelis, but even more so, the Palestinians, of the need to cease flogging the two state donkey and accept that it expired many years before. But this requires all sides to move beyond the past and look ahead to a conflict-free future, where all residents of the putative new state can prosper in peace.
A truth and reconciliation council might be a good starting point, but only if it is moderated independently and is achieved without bitter recriminations, and with a view to making all their children’s futures safe, secure, prosperous and equal under the law, and can begin once all settlements are stopped, the blockade is lifted and all walls torn down.
Biden and his US administration could go a long way towards ensuring such a process can begin by taking a much tougher stance with Israel, and by shaking the seeds of ambivalence and acceptance from the weary Palestinian demeanour. There are good, well meaning, well educated people on both sides who could work together to find a viable way ahead that with international, and particularly US support, would and should work for all parties.
It won’t be easy. It won’t be quick. But surely, for all concerned, it has to be better than continually smashing each others heads into a brick wall.
Doesn’t it?
Post script: Since writing this draft there has been a push internationally to bring about a ceasefire, and I hope this happens. But a ceasefire is just that; it’s a pause in the death and destruction; nothing more, and does not in anyway address the many, many problems on the ground.
There needs to be a fundamentally different approach to this ongoing conflict to break the deadlock, and both sides need to find the space in their hearts and their lives to, if not forgive, then move beyond the bitter recriminations that so many will hold, but that will ultimately only hold any pecae process back.
My heart goes out to all in Israel and Palestine, and I dream (literally) about your dilemma each night at the moment and hope that you can all learn to live together in peace and harmony.
